When the UConn women’s basketball team lost 73-61 to Ohio State in the Sweet 16 of the 2023 NCAA Tournament, the stunned Huskies were eliminated before the Final Four for the first time in 14 years.
There was hope that, with Paige Bueckers back on the court after an ACL tear, this season would be a return to form for UConn. Just last week, coach Geno Auriemma acknowledged when his fully-healthy team left campus in June, he thought he might have another title contender on his hands. Three season-ending injuries before the start of conference play — five in total — led to three three ranked losses, but the Huskies looked like they could still figure things out when they went on a 13-game streak into Big East play that included wins over No. 15 Louisville and North Carolina.
But after uninspiring performances in losses to both No. 16 Notre Dame on Jan. 27 and No. 1 South Carolina on Sunday, UConn will be lucky to land a three-seed when the 2024 NCAA Tournament arrives.
Bracketology projections present a mixed bag for the Huskies: They were predicted as a 3-seed in ESPN’s most recent update and a 2-seed by Her Hoop Stats, but that was before dropping to No. 15 in this week’s AP Top 25. However, recent history shows the selection committee tends to value strength of schedule more highly than the poll voters.
Iowa fell two places to No. 4 in Monday’s poll after losing to unranked Nebraska on Sunday, but UConn’s 18-point loss at No. 1 South Carolina caused a four-spot tumble. In contrast, tournament seeding in 2023 rewarded quality wins by selecting four-loss Indiana and Virginia Tech plus six-loss Stanford as 1-seeds while keeping two-loss LSU — the eventual national champion — a 2-seed due to a pitiful non-conference slate. If that remains true this season, the Huskies have a tiebreaker over just about anyone with the No. 1 strength of schedule in the country.
Auriemma said that he isn’t thinking about the postseason at all right now after the 18-point loss to the undefeated Gameco*cks. With six games left in the regular season and the Big East tournament still ahead, it’s just about getting his nine healthy players through each week.
“Ever since all the stuff that happened with our roster, that’s been the furthest thing from my mind. I could care less about that,” Auriemma said. “We have a bunch of young guys playing college basketball for the first time. They’ve gotten better each and every week, and we need to make sure they keep getting better every week. We have to do more things right than ever before because of the situation that we’re in.”
But perhaps UConn’s biggest problem come NCAA Tournament time will be its inability to utilize all nine players. Amari DeBerry and Ines Bettencourt, both averaging less than six minutes per game, never left the bench during the South Carolina game, and every starter played at least 34 minutes. The Gameco*cks also had nine available players Sunday with star center Kamilla Cardoso and freshman forward Sahnya Jah out, but eight played at least 14 minutes with Te-Hina Paopao playing a team-high 32 minutes.
The Gameco*cks’ talent depth is unique even among top-ranked squads — they’re the only undefeated team in the country for a reason — but UConn’s losses to South Carolina and Notre Dame show a pattern against competition tougher than it faces in the Big East. Nika Muhl fouled out with three assists against the Irish, and she was held to two with five turnovers by South Carolina. Bueckers, averaging 53.7% from the field, shot below 40% in both games, and the team also hit well below average from 3-point range.
“Bottom line is, our starting five has to play really, really well every night for us to be able to win these games,” Auriemma said. “You need other good players around you to play well, but you also need time on the bench to recharge yourself. (Paige) doesn’t get enough of that unfortunately. She’s out there for 39 minutes every night and there’s a lot of pressure on her to make big shots, make big plays, play defense, bang around.”
Shooting slumps and off games are a normal part of playing basketball, but the Huskies haven’t demonstrated a backup plan when any starter is struggling. Maintaining consistency is perhaps the biggest challenge of the high-intensity NCAA Tournament format, and Auriemma seems certain that there won’t be any other options for the Huskies by March.
“The guys that are playing are going to keep playing, and the guys that aren’t playing aren’t going to play,” Auriemma said. “At this late stage, nobody’s getting miraculously better where all of a sudden I can put them in a game like this and think they’re going to help us … It’s going to be those seven, and hopefully it was a great learning experience for those young guys.”
